Historical Precendent: Nonfarm Payrolls Gap Monday ES_F, SPY, SPX
- Posted by DynamicHedge
- on November 27th, 2011
Here are some select examples of weeks where the Nonfarm payrolls are released. As I’ve written before, these weeks have a strong bullish bias in the fourth quarter. The examples below have been selected because they all have a significant gap up from Friday to Monday (these charts do not show the gap, but trust me they’re there).
Take a close look at the chart patterns and you’ll see that if price is accepted on Monday then the markets will back and fill higher all week. Conversely, if price is rejected on the gap open and Monday is sold hard then the market auction lower for the remainder of the week. The high probability trade is for a bullish week. News is all around and anything can happen. If the low probability trade happens, I expect the selling to be quite enthusiastic.
Always let the market make the first move.
December 4 – 8, 2006:
January 31 – February 4, 2005:
March 29 – April 2, 2004:
January 5 – 9, 2004
March 3 – 7, 2003:
Disclaimer: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please click here for a full disclaimer.
DynamicHedge is an equities, futures and derivatives trader based on the West Coast. He runs a long/short opportunistic relative-value strategy within a proprietary trading group. More
- Representativeness Bias: Easy Classifications
- Confirmation bias: A dependable filter of objective information
- Conservatism Bias: How to know what new information to focus on
- Sentiment Flip
- Pardon the interruption
- Wait for the market to flex
- How SPY typically trades after a gap up/down on NFP report
- Ebay Monster Gaps
- Ghosts of Death Cross Past
- Yahoo Strategy Ahead of Alibaba IPO