Archive for January, 2012

  • Historical Precendent: First Quarter Nonfarm Payrolls
    Posted by on January 30th, 2012 at 1:36 pm, Comments: 0

    Looking back at the weeks in which Nonfarm Payrolls are announced, it’s very difficult to find an instance which gaps down to start the week.  [...]

  • Marketview: Healthy Conditions Continue
    Posted by on January 28th, 2012 at 5:41 pm, Comments: 0

    Let’s start off with the negatives:  1) GDP was a bit light compared to expectations, 2) the Fed extended ZIRP to 2014, 3) market volume/liquidity [...]

  • Using Historical Bond Returns to Measure Market Skew
    Posted by on January 25th, 2012 at 1:04 am, Comments: 0

    It’s impossible to know exactly when the market will turn.  The best you can do is catch a good chunk of the trend.  The indicator [...]

  • Marketview: Risk-on Momentum Continues
    Posted by on January 21st, 2012 at 7:38 pm, Comments: 0

    The market opened on a gap up and closed at the high of the week.  This is not bear market behavior.  The market is trying [...]

  • Value vs Growth on Watch for Breakout
    Posted by on January 17th, 2012 at 8:23 pm, Comments: 0

    The spread between large cap value and large cap growth has been coiling for several months.  The wedge has been tightening in this relationship since [...]

  • Marketview: The Next Pullback
    Posted by on January 15th, 2012 at 6:12 pm, Comments: 0

    The Interloper offers this perfect summation of investor behavior at the moment: How would you feel about your property value if there were a growing [...]

  • Market Reactions to ECB Meeting
    Posted by on January 11th, 2012 at 4:20 pm, Comments: 0

    The situation in Europe remains fragile.  Most market watchers feel that the Eurozone is in a recession or will enter a recession in 2012.  Tomorrow [...]

  • Wife of Swiss National Bank Chairman: Star Currency Trader
    Posted by on January 10th, 2012 at 1:09 pm, Comments: 0

    How do you think you could do as a currency trader if you had inside information on currency intervention by a central bank?  I guess [...]

  • Marketview: The Heavy Hand
    Posted by on January 6th, 2012 at 10:20 pm, Comments: 0

    Volume was thin this week and the rule of never short a dull market still stands.  We had a very traditional “risk on” trade this [...]

  • U-Turn Trading
    Posted by on January 6th, 2012 at 12:54 am, Comments: 0

    When I first started making intraday commentary on what I was seeing in the S&P 500 futures ($ES_F) I was worried about how my realtime [...]