Historical Precendent: First Quarter Nonfarm Payrolls
- Posted by DynamicHedge
- on January 30th, 2012
Looking back at the weeks in which Nonfarm Payrolls are announced, it’s very difficult to find an instance which gaps down to start the week. We have to go all the way back to Q1 2009 to find and instance which matches this bearish Friday to Monday gap lower. As with Q4, Q1 Nonfarm Payroll weeks tend to have an overall positive bias. Unfortunately, the gap down Monday pattern we are witnessing is quite rare and doesn’t tend to hold this overall bullish bias quite as well.
Most NFP weeks are characterized with a strong Monday and a pullback on Tuesday before going on to rally into the report on Friday. Not sure what this week will bring. It would be fitting if this rare opening to the week marked the beginning of our long awaited pullback.
Note: this charting software does not show the gaps from Friday to Monday. I’ve noted in the description which way the actual gap occurred.
March 28 – April 1, 2011 (Gap up Monday):
February 28 – March 4, 2011 (Gap up Monday):
January 31 – February 4, 2011 (Gap up Monday):
March 29 – April 2, 2010 (Gap up Monday):
March 1 – 5, 2010 (Gap up Monday):
February 1 – 5, 2010 (Gap up Monday):
March 30 – April 3, 2009 (Gap down Monday):
March 2 – 6, 2009 (Gap down Monday):
February 2 – 6 2009 (Gap down Monday):
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DynamicHedge is an equities, futures and derivatives trader based on the West Coast. He runs a long/short opportunistic relative-value strategy within a proprietary trading group. More